U.S. Rep. John McGuire may have breathed a sigh of relief after courts last month invalidated Virginia’s voter-approved redistricting amendment, which would have made the state’s 5th congressional District more favorable to Democrats.
But the Goochland Republican still enters his first reelection campaign facing turbulence, including accusations that he has done little for constituents and a Democratic field trying to flip a district where affordability concerns and dissatisfaction with Washington could reshape the race heading into the 2026 midterms.
The 5th District covers a vast stretch of Central and Southside Virginia, running from Charlottesville and Albemarle County through Lynchburg and Danville and south toward the North Carolina border. It also extends east into parts of Goochland, Hanover and Powhatan counties near Richmond.
Roughly 760,000 people live in the district, including about 575,000 registered voters.
Republicans still hold a clear advantage there. President Donald Trump carried the district by 11 points in 2024 after Glenn Youngkin, the GOP’s 2021 gubernatorial nominee, won it by an even wider margin that year. But Democrats believe changing suburban voting patterns and economic frustration could give them an opening this cycle.
Under the redistricting amendment invalidated last month by the Supreme Court of Virginia — a ruling later left in place by the U.S. Supreme Court — Democrats had expected the district to become friendlier to their party. Instead, the race will move forward under the current court-drawn congressional map from 2021.
The Aug. 4 primary election will determine nominees in one of Virginia’s most closely watched congressional races this year.
Incumbent draws a GOP challenge
McGuire, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and state senator first elected to Congress in 2024, defeated then-U.S. Rep. Bob Good, R-Campbell, in one of the country’s nastiest nomination contests.
The race quickly became a loyalty test tied to President Donald Trump — then running for a second term — after Good backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during the 2024 presidential primary. Trump later endorsed McGuire, helping push him past the conservative incumbent by a narrow margin that triggered a recount.
Now McGuire faces a Republican challenger in Louisa County real estate broker Melanie Lucero, who has focused much of her campaign on constituent services and what she describes as McGuire’s lack of accomplishments in Congress.
“We need to send representatives who are going to help the 5th district and who are going to fight for us,” Lucero told Charlottesville’s WVIR earlier this month.
Lucero has also argued that many voters across the sprawling district — the state’s largest — feel disconnected from McGuire and unable to get responses from his office.
McGuire has closely aligned himself with Trump and Republican leadership in Congress, emphasizing border security, tax cuts and reducing federal spending. On his campaign website, McGuire says he is focused on “putting America first” while fighting inflation and government overreach.
By May 27, McGuire had raised just over $1.4 million for his reelection bid and reported roughly $497,000 cash on hand. Lucero had raised a little more than $64,000 and reported about $34,000 cash on hand.
David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, said the existence of a Republican primary challenge is notable for a Republican congressman from the 5th District.
“Normally, an incumbent would not draw a serious challenger, but Lucero seems pretty serious,” he said. “She has really driven home McGuire’s lack of accomplishments in Washington and his general lack of interest in his own constituents.”
Richards said McGuire has increased campaign appearances around the district but may still struggle to point to major legislative achievements, which “may hurt him in the primary or the general election.”
Still, Richards said he does not expect McGuire to be defeated in the nomination contest.
“I don’t see him losing the primary, especially since Bob Good is no longer running,” he said.
Democrats consolidate around Perriello
On the Democratic side, former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello has emerged as the clear frontrunner in a field that once looked likely to become much larger under the proposed redistricting map.
Perriello represented the 5th District from 2009 until 2011 after defeating longtime Republican U.S. Rep. Virgil Goode on the coattails of Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential wave. He launched his latest campaign late last year with a message heavily focused on affordability and economic pressure facing Virginia families.
“It is not right that Virginians are working harder and harder just to afford the rising cost of food, electricity, and health care,” Perriello said at the time.
After leaving Congress, Perriello served in the Obama and Biden administrations and later became president and CEO of the Open Society Foundations. He also mounted an unsuccessful run for governor in 2017.
Several Democrats who had considered campaigns in a potentially redrawn district abandoned those plans after courts invalidated the redistricting amendment last month.
Perriello now faces two remaining primary opponents: Suzanne Krzyzanowski and Rob Tracinski.
Krzyzanowski, a physician and cancer researcher, has centered her campaign on healthcare, reproductive rights and scientific research funding. On her campaign website, she describes herself as a “doctor, scientist and advocate” focused on lowering costs and defending democratic institutions.
Tracinski, a writer, political commentator and former Republican-turned-Democrat, has emphasized congressional independence and constitutional checks on executive power.
Richards described Tracinski as an unconventional candidate whose message could still resonate with some voters.
“Tracinski is an interesting alternative; he seems odd because he was part of the Tea Party, which tended to break with Republicans,” Richards said. “However, his message has been around reinforcing the powers and duties of Congress, and that squares with the Tea Party’s focus on constitutional rights.”
However, Richards said Perriello’s name recognition and fundraising advantage make him the clear favorite for the nomination.
“On the Democratic side, it seems like Perriello has the nomination locked up,” Richards said.
The latest campaign finance reports reinforce that advantage.
By May 27, Perriello had raised more than $1.4 million and reported roughly $1.1 million cash on hand, according to the latest campaign finance filings. Tracinski had raised about $44,000 with nearly $40,000 cash on hand, while Krzyzanowski had raised close to $16,000 and reported about $14,000 remaining.
Affordability shapes the race
Like many competitive congressional contests around the country, the race in Virginia’s 5th District is increasingly centered on affordability and cost-of-living concerns.
Richards said both parties are trying to tap into voter frustration over prices and economic uncertainty, even though they blame very different causes.
“The big issue in the 5th, as elsewhere, is affordability,” he said. “This seems to mean different things to each of the front-runners.”
According to Richards, McGuire has largely embraced Republican arguments that tax cuts and deregulation will reduce economic pressure, while Democrats have tied rising prices and uncertainty to Republican control in Washington and the war against Iran.
“McGuire wants to focus on tax cuts by the current administration, while Perriello wants to blame that same administration for the rise in prices,” Richards said. “Both are talking past each other in a way, both noting the affordability crisis but blaming different sources.”
The district’s political makeup could ultimately determine how much room Democrats have to grow.
Much of the district remains heavily conservative and rural, but Democrats have steadily improved in suburban and university-centered communities such as Charlottesville and Albemarle County. Lynchburg has also become somewhat more competitive in recent statewide elections.
Richards said Perriello’s earlier victory in the district could help him, though he cautioned that both the lines and the political environment have changed significantly since 2008.
“He did win the 5th in 2008, but that was a 5th with very different boundaries, plus he had the coattails of President Barack Obama’s big win,” Richards said. “This time will be different.”
Richards said that Perriello would need overwhelming Democratic turnout, strong support from independents and at least some crossover Republican voters unhappy with Washington to seriously compete in November.
“All of that is a tall order, but Perriello probably has a better shot at it than almost anyone else in the commonwealth,” he said.
Even so, Richards said the race could remain competitive regardless of who emerges from the August primaries.
“The question becomes, will enough voters in the middle vote for Perriello if things are still bad in the fall?” Richards said. “I am dubious that enough will swing to the Democrats, but it will be a close thing, even if McGuire wins in November.”
